Enough Polling, Please

What I have learned by being sick at home watching news shows in between naps and flu-induced coma like behavior:

There is a “just released” poll for everything nowadays.  There are instant polls and twitter polls.  There are online polls and telephone polls.  While the actual number crunching may be scientific, there is nothing scientific about the responses. 

Let’s say my commute took twice as long as normal and my boss was angry that I was late to a meeting and all of a sudden because of the economy I am a little more nervous about job security than I might have been two years ago.  Now someone calls me tonight and asks, how am I feeling about the economy.  My answer may be “lousy”.  The day before I might have said, “stabilizing”.  The poll measures how you feel at that moment which isn’t right or wrong — it just isn’t the whole picture. 

Also the way the question is asked often leads to a more optimistic or pessimistic answer.  “Do you feel the country is on the wrong course?”  “Do you think that President Obama is indecisive on Afghanistan?” 

Or if you use a measure of 100 days or 1000 days or 5 minutes, it gives immediate legitimacy to the notion that these are relevant time measures for progress on incredibly complicated and pervasive issues.  Go figure. 

Maybe a better poll would ask, “over the past 6 months, has your outlook changed on [insert crisis du jour]?  And how has your outlook changed?”  And even that can be corrupted if you use a benchmark date.  “Since Labor Day, how have you been feeling about [insert crisis du jour]?”  Chances are that that question will elicit a negative response because end of summer is bittersweet.  Ask people on Thanksgiving Day and the answers may be more philosophical.    

I am of course exaggerating, and I must confess that I am unencumbered by fact, information and background in poll taking.  But I can’t imagine that these things don’t have an effect.

The biggest danger is that instant polling, first 100-day polling and second 100-day polling cement these arbitrary time frames and in a time where instant gratification and diminishing attention spans are prevailing social disorders, this is frightening indeed.